The State of Our Politics: Breaking Down the Republican Base (Part 1 of 3)

NOTE: This is a series of three blog posts that look at the current state of American politics. In this first post, I break down the Republican party base in the age of Donald Trump, using historical analysis for context. The second post focuses on what the Democrats, as the party currently out of power, can learn from the recent success of the Republicans. Finally, the third post highlights how we can all help move the country forward, regardless of which political party is in power.

The State of Our Politics: Breaking Down the Republican Base

The election of Donald Trump in November 2016 solidified Republican control of the presidency to go with both chambers of Congress, in addition to holding a majority of state governments. While polling data seems to indicate that a larger proportion of the population actually favors more of the center-left policies usually espoused by Democrats, certain significant factors have nevertheless allowed the Republican party to establish decisive control of the government. Since they’re the party currently in charge of the nation’s political agenda, it’s important to understand which voters make up the GOP base. To do that, we have to first look at history.

Political parties change and evolve over time. In its over 160-year existence, the Republican party is no exception. In fact, one could argue that the modern-day Republican party is very different from the Republican party of even twenty years ago. Therefore, for the purpose of this analysis, we’re going to focus on the voters that support the Republican party in its current incarnation.

Donald Trump won thirty states on his way to the presidency (refer to map below). These states, which make up three-fifths, or 60% of all states, are full or majority Republican at just about every level, from federal congressional representation to state governorships and legislatures. This level of dominance by one political party should not be understated. However, what’s even more important is knowing the people who are voting overwhelmingly Republican. What is the historical context behind the control the GOP currently enjoys? Will understanding the Republican base help us make sense of the deep division in our country?

Let’s start by looking at the history of these states that vote Republican. First, let’s go back to the Civil War, to the time when the Republican party was formed and our nation was literally at its most divided. Ten of the 11 states that formed the Confederacy back then are states that voted for Trump and are full or majority Republican. Of all Confederate states, only Virginia went Democratic in the 2016 presidential election. Yes, it’s true that Abraham Lincoln, the president who led the Union and wrote the Emancipation Proclamation freeing the slaves, was a Republican, and the Confederate states that wanted to preserve slavery were Democrat. But what is most important is which party the descendants of those Confederates are voting for and supporting now. And the answer to that is, by a significantly large margin, the Republican party.

Next, let’s look at the lynchings of African Americans. There were 3,446 total recorded lynchings of African Americans from 1882 to 1968. Of these lynchings, 3,303 of them occurred in states that voted for Trump and are full or majority Republican. In other words, over 95% of these black lynchings took place in states currently controlled by the GOP.

Another aftereffect of the Civil War and the racial divide in our country was the enactment of Jim Crow laws. These laws were specifically designed to oppress and subjugate black people in most areas of American society, from education to transportation, and everything in between. Most Jim Crow laws were passed in states that voted for Trump and are full or majority Republican.

Finally, let’s look at a detail that is not directly related to race: the federal funds dependency score (refer to map below). This score is derived based on how much a state relies on federal funding. The higher the score, the more that state depends on federal funds. In the 2016 presidential election, nine of the 10 states with the highest federal funds dependency score voted for the Republican candidate. By contrast, nine of the 10 states with the lowest federal funds dependency score voted for the Democratic candidate. The biggest irony here is that the Republican party bills itself as the party of “smaller government,” yet the federal funds dependency score shows that Republican voters rely on big funds from this government they keep wanting to shrink.

What does all this mean? Does the Republican party consist of a bunch of racist people who can’t get by without government help? Certainly not. The great majority of the people living in these Republican states are good, decent, hard-working, self-sufficient people. In fact, I can attest that some of the most honest, loyal, warm people I’ve ever met have been Republican voters. Nevertheless, this country’s racist legacy cannot be ignored. And there's no denying that the descendants of the people who owned slaves, enacted Jim Crow laws, and lynched black people are mostly Republican voters today. It is also a fact that while many of these Republican voters decry “big government” and its “runaway spending,” they depend on funding from that same government more than their Democratic counterparts.

So, the Republican party controls the presidency and Congress, as well as a majority of governorships and state legislatures. And while it enjoys support from a cross section of American society, a large portion of the GOP base consists of the keepers of our nation’s ugly racist legacy. Additionally, the economic realities of these Republican states contradict a central tenet of their own party’s political philosophy. Overall, what takes on a deeper meaning is not so much who makes up the Republican party base, but how these voters help shape the path our nation takes while we head to an uncertain future, as we will see in parts two and three of this three-part series.